Report: Drought in Horn of Africa Worse Than 2011 Famine

    Report: Drought in Horn of Africa Worse Than 2011 Famine
    Last updated Feb 23, 2023
    Image credit: AP


    • On Wednesday, [the Kenya-based regional] Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Center said the Horn of Africa is experiencing a historic drought, with rainfall in the next three months expected to be below normal for the entire region. The center said the lack of rain could have wide-ranging impacts on populations throughout Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
    • The researchers at the center warn that parts of eastern Africa could be facing a sixth consecutive failed rainy season. Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and parts of Uganda, had been hit hardest by drought, with half their population at risk of starvation; parts of Burundi, eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, and western South Sudan are now worsening.
    • The UN says that more than 1M people have been displaced in Somalia alone, and the drought has lasted almost three years. The food security working group has found that close to 23M people are thought to be at risk of food insecurity and mass migration in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
    • The center reported that more than 11M livestock have already died across East Africa due to drought conditions. Many farmers and pastoralists have watched crops perish, and water sources run dry.
    • The drought crisis in the Horn of Africa is particularly serious because of the war in Ukraine. Traditional European donors are now diverting funding from the region and the head of the center has urged governments and partners to act "before it's too late."


    Pro-establishment narrative

    The UN and other non-governmental organizations have warned that catastrophic hunger levels were imminent in the Horn of Africa for over a year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated an already severe problem, which now is a global problem. According to the World Food Programme, 349M people across 79 countries face acute food insecurity — up from 287M before the conflict in Ukraine. More than 900K people worldwide are fighting to survive famine-like conditions; these numbers are expected to increase dramatically unless aid efforts ramp up quickly. The international community must rise to this urgent challenge.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Western powers argue that Russia and Putin are to blame for the world famine crisis. In reality, supply chains have been disrupted by Western sanctions against Russia, which include restrictions on the movement of goods. When the US and Europe try to punish Russia for the war in Ukraine, they do so without considering the effects of such policies on the people in Africa. The main reason for the famine crisis is not a lack of food but Western disruptions of global markets and logistics.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 35% chance that more than 400M fatalities will occur if there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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