Report: Kyiv's Counteroffensive Will Fail to Meet Key Goal

    Photo: US Defense Dept. [via Wikimedia Commons]

    The Facts

    • According to a US intelligence assessment briefed to members of Congress, Ukraine's counteroffensive will likely fail to reach the southeastern city of Melitopol.

    • The US intelligence officials believe that if Kyiv fails to reach Melitopol, one of the key goals of the counteroffensive — to break up Moscow's control over Ukraine's southern regions, thereby severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea — may not be accomplished.


    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Ukraine will likely fail to make significant advances in its counteroffensive and is expected to fall well short of its stated goals. Even if Ukraine can penetrate Russia's multilayered defenses, how much further would these forces realistically be able to advance?

    Narrative B

    While the Ukrainian offensive may be advancing slowly against well-prepared Russian defensive lines, they continue to push forward and gain momentum in several axes of attack. Kyiv's forces will undoubtedly achieve their goals.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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