The Vatican, specifically Pope Francis, has failed the Catholic Church and its members. Despite being lauded for his plans to take the church in a different direction, the Pope has neglected to address the child sex abuse scandal that has rocked the church for decades, even relieving one of his top officials from duty to excuse him answering allegations of exploitation in Australia. His failure to act might not condone the behavior, but it does provide fodder for the critics who say he is willingly helping cover up the systemic sexual criminality of the church.
Pope Francis understands the enormity of the challenge faced by the church amid these child sex abuse allegations. He has taken it upon himself to bring the institution to account and ensure that any exploitation does not continue. He has taken the first major step of acknowledging that the abuse has occurred, now he will personally work to rid the church of the scandal that has undermined trust in religious leaders and discouraged people from engaging with the Christian church.
There is a 50% chance that the Catholic Church will elect a new Pope by February, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.