Analysis: Can the US, Israel stop Yemen’s Houthis from seizing more ships?
Al JazeeraNov 20, 2023
Report: Pentagon to Launch Task Force to Guard Red Sea
The Facts
According to a report published in The War Zone, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to announce a multinational effort this week — reputedly similar to the existing Task Force 153 — to expand maritime protection for Red Sea shipping.
Dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian, the task force is reportedly designed to provide reassurance to commercial shipping companies and is expected to involve Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
The Middle East is on the edge, and the actions of the US and its allies are only exacerbating matters. While provocation of any kind must be avoided, responses must also be tempered. The region can't afford a widening of conflict beyond Gaza. De-escalation is the best course of action, and diplomatically nudging Iran towards defusing the situation is the only way out.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though there's indeed a risk that a forceful response may escalate regional tensions to the point that Iran and its other proxy groups could engage in the conflict, Houthi rebels have left the US and its allies with very few options to protect commercial shipping. Hopefully, this purely defensive task force and diplomacy will be enough to deter further attacks. Otherwise, a more offensive approach to the Houthis will be required.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by May 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.