Report: Secret Ukraine-Russia Peace Deal on the Cards

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The war with Russia is in a stalemate. The Ukrainian counteroffensive hasn't met expectations, war fatigue is growing, and Ukrainians face a bleak winter. Kyiv's refusal to negotiate with Moscow has only caused the country heavy battlefield casualties, and it would take a massive technological leap to break the status quo. While the West stays committed to supporting Ukraine, as a sense of exhaustion and battle fatigue sets in, perhaps now is the right time to start thinking about how the war can be brought to a close.

Anti-Russia narrative

Considering the Kremlin couldn't be trusted to uphold a peace agreement, Ukraine should refrain from offering neutrality in exchange for an end to the war and continue to make Russia politically, militarily, and economically weaker. It wasn't Zelenskyy but Putin who sent troops into Ukraine last year, which is why it should be Putin, not Zelenskyy, who must first vacate annexed Ukrainian territories and end its aggression if it wants lasting peace in the region.

Narrative C

While Pulitzer Prize winner Seymour Hersh is a renowned investigative journalist, his self-published report relies on anonymous and uncorroborated sources — a common practice that has seen some of his previous reports tossed out. More specifically, the details of these so-called peace talks appear to contradict well-known facts about the status of the war. As much as many may want this report to be accurate, until it's verified, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

Metaculus Prediction


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