Where Would Rapprochement Between Turkey and Syria Leave the Syrian Opposition?
DAWNJan 27, 2023
The Facts
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Tuesday met with his counterparts from Turkey, Syria, and Iran in Moscow in a bid to rebuild Turkish-Syrian ties after years of bilateral tensions over the Syrian Civil War.
According to separate statements by Ankara and Moscow, the four ministers reaffirmed their intention to preserve Syria's territorial integrity as well as the importance of stepping up efforts to ensure the swift return of Syrian refugees to their home country.
The Spin
Narrative A
Turkey's further détente with Syria is a blow to Syrian rebels and their fight against the brutal Assad regime. Yet, while Erdoğan has moved away from the goal of regime change in Syria as part of Turkish-Syrian reconciliation, Turkey is unlikely to withdraw from Syria and abandon its local client forces in its fight against the Kurdish YPG group. Despite recent signs of improvement, it would be naive to expect ties between Ankara and Damascus to return to normal anytime soon.
Narrative B
Turkey has not only deployed troops in Syria, violating Syria's territorial integrity, but has also played a key role in backing militants seeking to topple the Assad government. However, this only underscores the need for talks to resolve differences between Damascus and Ankara, taking into account mutual security interests. The talks in Moscow, backed by regional power Iran, offer Turkey a unique opportunity to work with credible mediators for peace while improving Ankara's security calculus.
Nerd narrative
There's a 29% chance that Turkey will declare sanctions on Russia before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.