Russia Says it Repelled Ukrainian Drone Attack on Crimea

    Russia Says it Repelled Ukrainian Drone Attack on Crimea
    Last updated May 07, 2023
    Image credit: The New York Times


    • Mikhail Razvozhaev, governor of the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, claimed on Sunday that Russian air defense forces and electronic warfare units fended off at least three of ten Ukrainian drones sent to the Crimean city of Sevastopol overnight.[1]
    • In a statement posted on Telegram, Razvozhaev added that two drones were shot down over the sea – one near Cape Chersonese and the other from "the side of the north breakwater" – while another reportedly crashed into a forest after losing control.[1]
    • Earlier on Saturday, authorities in Crimea reported that Russian air defense forces had taken down two ballistic missiles launched from Ukraine's tactical missile system Grom-2 toward Crimea earlier that day.[2]
    • Meanwhile, air raid alerts blared for several hours overnight into early Sunday across most of Ukraine, as officials claimed that multiple drones were shot down by air defense systems, including one flying over Kyiv's airspace.[3]
    • The alleged drone attacks come as UN International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi warned of "potentially dangerous" conditions around Russia's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, as Moscow began the partial evacuation of cities close to the contested zone ahead of Kyiv's anticipated counteroffensive.[4]
    • Elsewhere, the Romanian defense ministry claimed a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet intercepted a Polish Border Police aircraft over the Black Sea on Friday, which almost resulted in a collision. Warsaw claims it carried out "aggressive and dangerous maneuvers."[5]


    Pro-Ukraine narrative

    Ukrainian rhetoric about recapturing Crimea isn't bluster; it's one of Kyiv's key war aims. Russians illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, which is why Ukraine would put considerable effort into reintegrating the Crimean Peninsula back into the country if it regained the territory militarily. Any drone and missile strikes are aimed at preparing Crimea for de-occupation.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    The people of Crimea overwhelmingly voted in favor of joining the Russian Federation in 2014, and these types of assaults can't be tolerated. Besides, Zelensky's plan to annex Crimea is merely a fantasy, as Ukraine's army would first need to take over Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. Battles over Crimea will not happen in the immediate future.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 5% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of Sevastopol by January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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