The Facts

  • The Rwanda Defense Force on Tuesday shot at a Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) fighter jet in response to an alleged airspace breach in the Rwandan [district of] Rubavu, marking the latest dispute between the two countries whose relations have been strained by the M23 rebel insurgency.

  • An unverified video shared widely on Congolese social media showed a projectile exploding in the air near the plane, which continued to fly. The DRC confirmed that the plane arrived in the provincial capital Goma without sustaining significant damage.


The Spin

Narrative A

This unacceptable aggression carried out by Rwanda against a Congolese warplane flying inside the DRC territory adds context to a ground offensive launched earlier on Tuesday and immediately repelled by the DRC. As Rwanda joins forces with the M23 to undermine regional stability, all means will be used to protect the DRC's territorial integrity.

Narrative B

Rwanda had no other choice than to take the necessary defensive measures after a Congolese fighter jet violated its airspace for the third time in three months. It's about time for the DRC to halt this continuous aggression and blatant provocation and end hostilities.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that the East African Federation will be formed before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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