Slovakia: Populist Party Wins Parliamentary Election

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

The Facts

  • The populist party of Slovakia's former Prime Minister Robert Fico, which reportedly wants to stop military aid to Ukraine, has won Saturday's parliamentary election.

  • According to preliminary results released by Slovakia's Statistical Office on Sunday, the Slovak Social Democracy (SMER-SD) party won 23.3%, while the liberal Progressive Slovakia party secured 17% of the votes.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The fact that his party didn't secure a big enough share of the vote to govern on its own shows the true nature of Fico's win. He portrayed liberalism and human rights as more significant threats to citizens than widespread corruption and pro-Putin, pro-war sentiments. While Fico has emerged on top based on politics of fear, Slovakia needs EU modernization and recovery funds. It must think twice before conflicting with Brussels and challenge the EU consensus on supporting Ukraine.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's an oversight to call Fico a pro-Russian politician. Slovakia is a peaceful country, and the former Prime Minister is simply concerned about maintaining its national sovereignty and peace in the region. While it's a NATO member, Slovakia needs to pay attention to the rising number of migrants passing through its territory to Western Europe as well as fix its budget deficit that's nearing 7% of gross domestic product this year — much more significant issues than the war in Ukraine.

Cynical narrative

Slovakia's parliamentary election wasn't about Ukraine but a fight between conservatism and liberalism and everyday issues like food and fuel prices. However, a Fico-led government could help bring into the mainstream calls for an end or reduction of military support to Kyiv — so far limited to Europe's right-wing political fringes — as SMER-SD's win indicates a pronounced crack in NATO and EU unity over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Nerd narrative

There's a 0.1% chance that any state will leave NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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