Germany’s climate adaptation measures have taken a back seat as Europe grapples with an energy crisis — driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — forcing a return to coal to ensure the country’s energy security squeezed by the Russian natural gas supply cut, undermining its efforts to stay in line with its CO2 budget agreed to with the Paris Agreement. Nonetheless, Germany is committed to investing in transforming the economy and shifting away from planet-heating fossil fuels toward renewable power.
Arguing that the rise in the use of fossil fuels is a temporary reaction to an abrupt reduction in Russian gas supplies is unjust. Germany's greenhouse gas emissions increased by nearly 5% in 2021 compared to the previous year, with the transport and the building and heating sectors failing their annual emission reduction targets. The country's energy policies bring into question its climate credentials. Berlin continues to invest in new fossil fuel infrastructure and rely on dirty fuels.
There is a 50% chance that Germany's per-capita CO2 emissions in 2030 will be at least 6.76 tonnes, according to the Metaculus prediction community.