Study: Over 1.3B Will Have Diabetes by 2050

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The Facts

  • According to a study published Thursday in The Lancet and The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journals, over 1.3B people worldwide will have diabetes by 2050.

  • The study also predicts that 43.6% out of 204 countries will have a diabetes prevalence greater than 10%. In 2021, 529M people were living with diabetes worldwide — 95% of which were cases of type 2 diabetes — with a global prevalence of 6.1%.


The Spin

Narrative A

With diabetes outpacing most diseases globally, it has reached epidemic proportions and become one of the biggest public health threats and a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide. It's crucial that the impact of social and economic factors on this disease — including racism, deprivation, and poverty — is acknowledged to stop its rise worldwide.

Narrative B

Type 2 diabetes is a lifestyle disease, so fighting the silent killer will require lifestyle changes — like eating healthier greens instead of highly processed foods. It's not the government's job to make decisions or spend millions on changing personal food habits. To turn the tide against diabetes, we will need more than one type of public sector intervention.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 13.20% of US adults will have diabetes (type 1 or 2) in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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