Warring Parties in Sudan to Hold Talks in Saudi Arabia
Facts
- On Saturday, the Sudanese army (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a seven-day ceasefire to restore essential services following weeks of violence. The peace will reportedly be enforced by a US-Saudi "ceasefire monitoring mechanism."[1]
- Starting Monday evening, the warring sides will allow aid groups to provide lifesaving assistance and will themselves refrain from occupying critical infrastructure such as hospitals and detaining or threatening civilians.[2]
- The ceasefire comes two weeks after representatives of SAF chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo gathered in Jeddah for US-Saudi brokered peace talks.[3]
- Meanwhile, residents in Khartoum and Nyala have reported that the deadly clashes between the SAF and RSF continued on Sunday despite the announcement of the truce, which is the seventh since fighting began on April 15th but the first to have been signed by both sides.[4]
- Burhan and Dagalo, two generals who had held top positions on Sudan's ruling council since former leader Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019, have previously indicated they are seeking victory in the war.[5]
- The six weeks of fighting have plunged the country into chaos, killing at least 705 people and wounding nearly 5.2K. Some 1.1M people have been displaced internally and into neighboring countries.[6]
Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Since the break out of conflict in Sudan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has worked hard to stamp out violence, bring about a peaceful solution, and provide safe passage for humanitarian aid. The US is doing its part in enabling diplomatic resolution and committing itself to supporting refugees until a ceasefire or permanent agreement is reached.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though the US and Saudi Arabia have brokered this ceasefire, it is undeniable that Washington has significant responsibility for the outbreak of fighting in Sudan. The US failed to rein in the country's top generals when mounting tensions between forces led by Burhan and Dagalo indicated that a prolonged conflict was likely to erupt; facilitating a truce is the least US leaders can do for the region given this negligence.
Cynical narrative
Each warring side in Sudan is still battling for supremacy over the country, which indicates they're in no way serious about these ceasefires or peace talks. If the two continue to see each other as an existential threat, it will be impossible to find the middle ground necessary to stop the fighting and prevent the nation from being destroyed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 9.5% chance that Abdel Fattah al-Burhan will be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
