China invasion unlikely: President Tsai
Taipei TimesNov 30, 2023
Taiwan President Says China Too 'Overwhelmed' to Invade
The Facts
During an interview at the New York Times DealBook Summit, Taiwanese Pres. Tsai Ing-wen said China is too "overwhelmed" to think about invading the island, citing its "internal economic and financial as well as political challenges" and adding that the "international community has made it loud and clear that war is not an option."
Tsai also alleged that China is determined to meddle in the self-governing island's upcoming January election, something she claims Beijing has done since 1996 through "the use of military stress and economic coercion, extensive cognitive warfare campaigns, [and] both tradition and social media platforms."
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
Pres. Tsai's comments come not from arrogance but confidence in the nation's institutions, economic strength, and partnerships with powerful allies. While China makes verbal threats, Taipei is manufacturing world-leading computer chips and building military and economic cooperation with countries across the world — not to mention its growing domestic public support for democracy and deterring Beijing.
Pro-China narrative
As Taiwan's ruling party pushes the island into the arms of Washington, Beijing feels sorry for the Taiwanese people, whose tax dollars are being used to buy US weapons and thus instigate a war. US policy toward Taipei isn't one of compassion but rather of using the island as a piggy bank for its military machine. This dangerous policy will only worsen if the ruling DPP party wins again in 2024.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.