China warns of retaliation if Taiwan’s president meets US House speaker during visit
GuardianMar 29, 2023
During a stop on her way to Central America, Taiwanese Pres. Tsai Ing-wen visited New York City. At a closed-door speech on Wednesday night, she reportedly said US-Taipei relations were "closer than ever" and touted "significant progress" in economic and security cooperation.
Coming amid rising tensions with China with the potential for armed conflict, and in keeping with US diplomatic protocol that says visits from Taiwanese leaders must be kept low-key, Tsai's visit remained largely out of the public eye.
China is overreacting, as this was Tsai's sixth visit to the US since becoming president in 2016. All of a sudden, though, the PRC decided to become aggressive in its language, outright threatening consequences if she has a standard unofficial meeting with US officials during her trip. This is an overreach and reactionary rhetoric from Beijing.
Taiwanese officials should not behave like Tsai on the international stage, but rather like former Pres. Ma. What Ma understands is that the Taiwanese and Chinese are of the same ancestors, and for the good of both China and its territories, Taipei must act in tandem with Beijing and not encourage bad actors rooted in Western hegemony. Peaceful talks with the mainland are the only way to avoid conflict.
There's a 68% chance that the US will respond militarily if China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.