China unlikely to launch invasion
Taipei TimesSep 14, 2023
Taiwan's defense ministry has called for Beijing to end its "continuous military harassment" after 103 Chinese military aircraft were reportedly spotted in the waters separating the two nations between Sunday and Monday.
The defense ministry detected the aircraft and nine Chinese naval chips between 6 a.m. (local time) Sunday to 6 a.m. Monday morning and warned that such "destructive military activities" were set to "worsen regional security."
China's ongoing economic and domestic troubles are a cause for concern for Beijing, making an invasion of Taiwan far less viable than previously imagined. China's collapse in the short term is highly unlikely, but to risk international embarrassment through an unsuccessful attempt to retake the island would leave Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party on unstable footing. While Taiwan remains supported by the US and Beijing remains focused on more urgent matters, it seems likely that PRC aggression can be contained.
China continues to advocate against military intervention across the Taiwan Strait. However, the issue is one that is held dear to all those who recognize and respect Chinese sovereignty, integrity, and national identity. The longer the US continues to encourage Taiwan and ignores the One-China principle, the greater the chances of potential conflict. The reality of mainland China and Taiwan's inseparable connection cannot be ignored forever.
There's a 53% chance that China will successfully control Taiwan within three years, If they invade Taiwan before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.