Ian Easton On Taiwan: Has Xi doomed America’s ‘one China’ policy?
Taipei TimesMar 05, 2023
The Facts
Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng on Monday warned that the country is on alert for a "sudden entry" by the Chinese military into regions close to its territory amid rising military tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
While Taiwan hasn't reported any incidents of Chinese forces entering its contiguous zone, an area 44.4km (24 nautical miles) from its coast, Chiu alleged that China is "making such preparations."
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
Taiwan is continuing to receive support from the West in a joint stand of contempt against the CCP's actions towards the state. Just as China's behavior concerning Hong Kong and its management of COVID has destroyed previous assumptions of its peaceful intentions, Beijing's belligerence and Xi Jinping's reckless actions — such as its defense spending — reveal its stance on the island, which becomes more internationally unpopular by the day.
Pro-China narrative
The hyperbole surrounding China's defense budget increase is baseless scaremongering. Despite economic slowdowns, the defense expenditures of numerous countries continue to grow. The US, for instance, has increased its own in an attempt to check China's rise. The West should remember that the Taiwan question is an internal dispute in which Beijing is seeking a peaceful solution, not a hegemony like other international actors.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that China will recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.