Taiwan's Opposition Alliance Collapses

    Taiwan's Opposition Alliance Collapses
    Photo: Annabelle Chih/Getty Images News [via Getty Images]

    The Facts

    • Taiwan's two main opposition parties, the long-established Kuomintang (KMT) and the newer Taiwan People's Party (TPP), have failed to agree on a proposed joint presidential ticket to unseat the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in January's presidential election.

    • On Friday — the deadline for registering for the Jan. 13 election — the KMT officially fielded Hou Yu-ih and pro-China media personality Chao Shao-kang as its candidates, while the TPP named Ko Wen-je and lawmaker Cynthia Wu for its own presidential ticket.


    The Spin

    Pro-China narrative

    Even in the absence of a united opposition front to overwhelmingly defeat the ruling DPP, people in Taiwan must understand that they are faced with a binary choice. When they cast their ballot in January, voters will choose between peace and war, prosperity and decline. Now, it's a crucial time to unseat those pushing for secession.

    Anti-China narrative

    It's crystal clear that the opposition parties will undermine Taiwanese sovereignty for their benefit if they are voted into office, as their vice presidential nominees further indicate that they would favor a shift toward Beijing. This election has become a referendum on whether Taiwan citizens want to remain free or to kowtow to Beijing.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 60% chance that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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