Tens of Thousands at Risk Amid Southern Ukraine Floods

    Photo: Wikimedia Commons

    The Facts

    • Following the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine's Kherson region on Tuesday, government officials from Ukraine and Russia said that tens of thousands of people are at risk as floods continued to sweep through communities on both sides of the Dnipro River on Wednesday.

    • Russian troops occupied the whole of the Kherson region at the outset of the war, but withdrew from positions on the western bank of the river in November. The river now serves as the dividing line between Russian and Ukrainian control over Kherson in Ukraine's south.


    The Spin

    Pro-Ukraine narrative

    In blowing up the Kakhovka dam, Russia has committed an egregious war crime as well as the largest man-made ecological disaster in Europe in decades. It must pay the price for this act of eco-terrorism.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    What would Russia gain from cutting off the water supply to Crimea which it considers its territory? This is unequivocally an act of sabotage carried out by Ukraine, probably to distract from its already faltering counteroffensive.

    Narrative C

    As much as this is a hot war between Russia and Ukraine, it's also an information war, with both sides disseminating vast amounts of propaganda for their own geopolitical objectives. It's easy to make snap judgments, but serious examination is needed before any conclusions can be reached — including exploring the possibility of a simple structural failure causing this tragic disaster.

    Nerd narrative

    There is an 4% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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