Tens of Thousands at Risk Amid Southern Ukraine Floods

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

In blowing up the Kakhovka dam, Russia has committed an egregious war crime as well as the largest man-made ecological disaster in Europe in decades. It must pay the price for this act of eco-terrorism.

Pro-Russia narrative

What would Russia gain from cutting off the water supply to Crimea which it considers its territory? This is unequivocally an act of sabotage carried out by Ukraine, probably to distract from its already faltering counteroffensive.

Narrative C

As much as this is a hot war between Russia and Ukraine, it's also an information war, with both sides disseminating vast amounts of propaganda for their own geopolitical objectives. It's easy to make snap judgments, but serious examination is needed before any conclusions can be reached — including exploring the possibility of a simple structural failure causing this tragic disaster.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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