Trump Claims He'll Be Arrested Tuesday

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The Facts

  • On Saturday, former Pres. Donald Trump announced via social media that he expects to be arrested on Tuesday in relation to the Manhattan district attorney’s office’s investigation into a $130K payment Michael Cohen, his former lawyer, made to Stormy Daniels.

  • Trump accused the Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office of informing him about the arrest via "illegal leaks," even while the former president’s lawyer and spokesperson confirmed there had been no communication from prosecutors. There has also been no time frame set for the secret grand jury’s work.

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump’s post looks like another in the unending string of lies he has spewed from his social media accounts and microphone stand. Aside from the fact that it doesn’t appear an indictment or arrest is imminent, he also falsely ranted about open borders and Jan. 6 suspects being held inhumanely before using violent rhetoric to inspire his followers. His message is dangerously reminiscent of what he exclaimed before Jan. 6. He could set off problems he can’t control.

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump has no choice but to alert his supporters that a district attorney who has been bought by Democratic megadonor George Soros is attacking the former president with yet another politically-motivated case. This is an abuse of power, and it’s the First Amendment right of the former president and his followers to voice their displeasure over it.

Metaculus Prediction

Political split



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