Turkey's Erdoğan Wins Re-Election

    Turkey's Erdoğan Wins Re-Election
    Photo: Voice of America [via Wikimedia Commons]

    The Facts

    • Turkey's Supreme Election Council has declared Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the winner of Sunday's presidential runoff against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, extending his 20-year rule for a further five-year term.

    • With 99.85% of the ballots counted, preliminary results on Sunday night showed the incumbent with a four-point lead over his opponent after receiving 52.16% of the roughly 54M votes. Voter turnout was 84.22%.


    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Under the leadership of Erdoğan and his AK Party, Turkey has broken away from a long record of corrupt, ineffective coalition governments to become a regional and international reference in several sectors, including governance and public services. The re-election of Erdoğan will preserve the integrity of the state ahead of the upcoming second centenary of the republic.

    Narrative B

    While it is yet to be seen how Ankara will balance its deepening ties with Moscow and its NATO membership in the upcoming years, another five-year term under Erdoğan will surely mean continuation of current policy. As divisions between the world's democracies and autocracies become increasingly stark, Turkey is dangerously backsliding on democratic institutions and civil liberties.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 98% chance that Turkey will be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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