Red flags riddle Britain’s supermarkets – and now they are in the firing line
The TelegraphMay 24, 2023
The Facts
The UK’s Office for National Statistics has revealed that, as calculated by the consumer price index, the rate of annual inflation fell to 8.7% in April.
The level decreased by 1.4% from 10.1% and has largely been credited to the stabilization of energy prices. However, the rate remains higher than economists' predictions of 8.2% and the Bank of England's projection made two weeks ago.
The Spin
Narrative A
A fall in the inflation rate is long overdue and will be welcomed by consumers. As food prices come down, albeit slowly, the UK will do well to avoid new regulatory burdens and limit the cost impact of new policies. What the government could do, however, is investigate whether the nation's largest grocers, as has been the case in the past, have artificially bumped up prices under the guise of the inflation crisis.
Narrative B
While the inflation rate slow-down is a sigh of relief, the reality is that "core inflation" — which strips away volatile sectors from the calculation — still rose in April. With food prices continuing to soar, pressure is bound to mount on the Bank of England as the UK still has a long way to go to lower inflation back to 2%. While the pain from interest rate hikes will continue, the Bank has a vital role to play until it achieves normal rates again.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the UK's annual inflation rate will be at least 6.83% by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.