It's very likely that Boris Johnson knowingly misled parliament, however, he will probably survive any recall petition or by-election thrown at him, and the former prime minister is still well-loved in his constituency. While Johnson, in his prime, achieved more than the likes of Theresa May or Gordon Brown, the hour for him to return has now passed. If Johnson's ambition is still unquenched, he must ride out the current investigation and set his sights on a new objective.
Rule-breaker Boris Johnson has lost whatever shred of dignity he used to have. The former prime minister is mistaking the UK for fools, pretending he was unaware that he was breaking the regulations that he himself imposed. In reality, his misrepresentation of the truth has more than tarnished his image.
There's a 14% chance that Boris Johnson will return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.