UK: Rwanda Law Passes Initial Parliament Vote

UK: Rwanda Law Passes Initial Parliament Vote
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The Facts

  • Despite announcements by five Conservative backbench factions stating they would not support the government policy, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Rwanda bill has successfully passed through the initial stages of parliament within the House of Commons.

  • A second reading of the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill on Tuesday evening saw the policy pass through the Commons by 313-269 votes, with 37 Conservative Party members of parliament among those choosing to abstain from the vote.


The Spin

Left narrative

While Sunak will be relieved by the bill's initial passing, the Prime Minister's authority has been damaged as his own party can't even agree on this policy. Sunak now faces a prolonged period of political infighting after promising amendments to the legislation in return for support within the Commons. With only a fragile hold over the government, an early election in the new year may materialize if the Rwanda bill doesn't successfully pass through Parliament.

Right narrative

The public supports the Rwanda plan, despite frustrating blockades by the UK's judiciary. Parliament is sovereign and the government's latest treaty ensures that Rwanda will uphold its end of the deal. Judges are not policymakers and should not be expected to influence politics in this manner. The Conservative government will continue its already successful reduction in immigration — the passing of this policy in Parliament is only the beginning of stricter border security.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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