Ukraine Again Launches Strikes into Russia

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    The Facts

    • In what was suspected of being a further Ukrainian drone attack inside Russian territory, a blaze was sparked at an oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region in the early hours of Wednesday. Regional governor Veniamin Kondratyev said the fire at the Afipsky oil refinery was contained to 100 meters sq. before being put out, adding that there were no reports of casualties from the attack.

    • A Ukrainian drone also reportedly struck the Ilskyi oil refinery in the neighboring Krasnodar Krai region, but was said not to have detonated. The debris reportedly caused minor damage and there were no reports of fire or injury.


    The Spin

    Pro-Ukraine narrative

    Ukraine's attacks inside Russia are "shaping operations," designed to confuse and overwhelm the nation ahead of Ukraine's counteroffensive. This is standard military operating procedure and an essential element of launching a successful counterattack.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    Washington's clumsy denials about not supporting Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are laughable given how heavily involved it has been in Ukrainian planning. The US seems hellbent on escalating this conflict to a global, all-out war.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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