Ukraine Claims Liberation of Four Towns, Territorial Gains

Photo: [via Ukraine's defense ministry]

The Facts

  • As Ukraine's counteroffensive continued through the weekend and entered its second week on Monday, Ukraine claimed to have made territorial gains on multiple fronts, including the recapture of four villages in southwest Donetsk.

  • Ukraine also claimed to have made further advances around the flanks of Bakhmut — the Donetsk city recently captured by Russian troops. It also appeared to be making gains in the neighboring region of Zaporizhzhia where heavy fighting kicked off the counteroffensive early last week.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Early into its counteroffensive, Ukraine has made small but promising gains, moving the front lines deeper into Russian territory across a number of fronts. Nevertheless, despite the early victories, the long-term success of any Ukrainian counteroffensive is yet far from certain.

Pro-Russia narrative

As before, Ukrainian forces continued to launch multiple attacks on Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. However, as before, Russia successfully repelled all attacks and inflicted serious damage on Ukraine's armed forces and military equipment.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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