Ukraine's forces have notched another victory in their belt with the recapture of Andriivka. The country's counteroffensive continues to advance and expel Russia from its territory.
After months of fighting, Ukraine has made very limited gains in its counteroffensive. The reality is that Ukraine will likely not drive Russia out of all its territory and it needs to be realistic about how to bring the war to an end.
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula by January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.