Ukraine Claims Recapture of Donetsk Village

    Ukraine Claims Recapture of Donetsk Village
    Last updated Sep 15, 2023
    Image credit: [via the Armed Forces of Ukraine]


    • Ukraine claimed to have recaptured Andriivka on Friday — a village in Donetsk roughly 10 km (6 miles) south of the Russian-occupied city Bakhmut.
    • Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, announced the recapture of the village a day earlier, but was forced to issue a clarification after the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade disputed her report.
    • On Thursday, the brigade said: "The statement about the liberation of Andriivka is wrongful and premature. At the moment, heavy fighting is ongoing near the settlements of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Such statements are harmful, pose threat to the lives of personnel and hinder combat missions."
    • That prompted Maliar to state that "a communication failure has occurred," adding that for now, certain success had been achieved but that heavy fighting was still ongoing there.
    • However, by Friday, the brigade announced the recapture of Andriivka, claiming they had left Russia's 72nd Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade "in tatters."
    • The brigade further claimed that in two days of fighting, it killed its counterpart's head of intelligence, three commanders and "almost all the infantry of the 72nd brigade, along with officers and a significant amount of equipment." The allegations could not be verified and Russia has yet to publicly comment on the reports.


    Pro-establishment narrative

    Ukraine's forces have notched another victory in their belt with the recapture of Andriivka. The country's counteroffensive continues to advance and expel Russia from its territory.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    After months of fighting, Ukraine has made very limited gains in its counteroffensive. The reality is that Ukraine will likely not drive Russia out of all its territory and it needs to be realistic about how to bring the war to an end.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula by January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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