Ukraine Claims to Secure Foothold in South

    Photo: Kostya Liberov/Libkos via Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, claimed on Tuesday that "Ukraine's Defense Forces have gained a foothold on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro" and are closer to "demilitarizing Crimea."

    • This comes after Zelenskyy said Kyiv is building additional defense measures, including enhanced intelligence and air defense, in Kherson as Russia ramps up its attacks on the Ukrainian cities Avdiivka and Kupyansk as well as the Donetsk region.


    The Spin

    Pro-Ukraine narrative

    While Western war fatigue is on the rise and Ukraine may not come out of this stalemate victorious, Kyiv and its allies can still work to weaken Russia's oil revenue to put Ukraine in the best position possible should negotiations be the outcome. Ukraine can still become a significant economic partner with the West, so Ukraine's allies must not allow Putin to be in charge of if or how this war is prolonged.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    As the US grows closer to halting its military support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's dominance, Europe is now the last partner Kyiv has to lean on before peace negotiations take place. However, the EU's talk about continuing to support Kyiv and even bringing it into the bloc is just lip service, as Ukraine has improved neither its economic nor political standing, the two main factors during accession talks. Kyiv is about to be left high and dry as its temporary friends stop funding their proxy war and tag it along this dead-end road.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will have a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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