EU unblocks 10 billion euros for Hungary, but Orban's support for Ukraine still unclear
The Kyiv IndependentDec 13, 2023
The Facts
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked a €50B ($54B) aid package for Ukraine at the EU summit in Brussels late Thursday (local time). This came hours after the EU leaders decided to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and to grant Georgia EU candidate status.
Before the summit's start, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Kyiv completed four mandatory reforms while recognizing anti-corruption efforts and recent amendments to Ukraine's minorities law. Granted candidate status in 2022 along with Moldova, Ukraine was given seven reforms as a precondition to start accession talks, with the move being hailed by Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy as: "A victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe."
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is historic. Unfortunately, that Orbán vetoed the €50B Ukraine aid package against the rest of the EU proves yet again that the Hungarian nationalist leader is standing not on the side of democracy and freedom, but is committing blackmail aligned with the geostrategic goals of the Kremlin. The EU must not allow itself to be bullied by Orbán, who wants to prevent a democratic and Western-oriented Ukraine, as this would undermine his autocratic project.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's remarkable that the EU is opening accession negotiations with Kyiv and is putting together a huge aid package while withholding tens of billions from Hungary — which it did before in 2022. To cynically bribe Budapest's approval, only €10B was released, which Hungary is entitled to anyway, while Ukraine is to receive €50B. Hungary has the right to insist on the release of all funds to approve the Ukraine aid package. EU leaders should bear in mind that Hungary still has several options to block Ukraine's accession process and the road ahead could rightly be paved with Hungarian vetoes.
Nerd narrative
There is an 18% chance, that Hungary will leave the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.