These new long-range weapons are a game-changer for Ukraine, giving it the ability to strike Russian supply lines and logistics much deeper than it previously could. The risk of escalation is minimal as Kyiv has pledged not to strike within Russian territory.
This is yet another severe escalation from London, and Moscow has the right the counteract any threats that arise from Ukraine having these weapons in any way necessary. It cannot idly sit by, letting the weapons strike its territory.
There's a 25% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.