West African coastal terror attacks: just the tip of the iceberg
ISS AfricaMar 09, 2022
UN: Islamic State Doubled Territory it Controls in Mali in Less Than a Year
The Facts
UN experts have said in a new report that the Islamic State (IS) has almost doubled its territory in Mali in less than a year, adding that the country could again see "the 2012 scenario," in which militants took over Northern Mali and declared it an Islamic state.
The group now reportedly controls rural areas in eastern Menaka and large parts of the Ansongo area in northern Gao. The report also said that IS attacks in the area have eroded trust in the 2015 peace agreement, with communities still being vulnerable to extremists.
The Spin
Narrative A
Though violent extremism is spilling over from the Sahel to coastal states in West Africa, a purely military response to the existential threat will fall short of protecting innocent citizens. Such actions would fail to tackle the root causes enabling and fueling the emergence of jihadis in the region or stop retaliatory attacks. Governments must focus on breaking terrorists' supply chains if they are serious about addressing domestic terrorism.
Narrative B
While the Sahel and West Africa attacks have been linked to jihadists for decades, the Westphalian state crisis has been a potent force behind continuous aggression. Violent extremist groups, ethnic leaders, and foreign powers are operating in the region, and they are very much part of the years-long multi-dimensional conflict in West Africa. Simply blaming terrorism for the region's apathy will not help it recover.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that ECOWAS will intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.