US Employers Expected to Hire Fewer Seasonal Workers

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    The Facts

    • Several major US employers — including the US Postal Service and department store chain Macy’s — are planning to hire fewer seasonal workers than last year in a sign that the labor market is cooling.

    • In low numbers not seen since 2013, companies plan to hire 573K season workers this year, a decrease of 60% from 2021 levels.

    The Spin

    Republican narrative

    The Biden administration and Democrats' slow-grind strategy for bringing inflation down is going to spoil consumers’ holiday shopping. High-interest rates are already tightening people's spending budgets, and now consumers are going to face less assistance and longer lines in stores because of the slowdown in hiring.

    Democratic narrative

    The Biden administration's approach to cooling inflation and bringing the economy back is working, as evidenced by employment in the retail industry and sales growth staying steady all year. If anything, Republicans' refusal to go along with the president's plans for student loan forgiveness is responsible for hurting spending. With student loan payments back on, consumers are less likely to spend on purchases.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that the average American employee will work at least 31 hours per week in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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