The Facts

  • The US and Japan announced on Wednesday a significant strengthening of their military relationship, which includes the formation of a US Marine unit on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa designed for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and the ability to fire anti-ship missiles.

  • Both Japan and the US reportedly perceive a greater military threat from China, North Korea, and Russia — especially in light of recent declarations of stronger ties between those three nations.


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

Japan, which holds the largest permanent contingent of US forces overseas, can no longer solely rely on US support — a fact that this latest plan acknowledges. The new strategy fortifies the US and Japan's vigor and will reshape their ability to promote peace and protect the Indo-Pacific region as China attempts to aggressively exert its influence.

Pro-China narrative

Japan is groundlessly discrediting China. By adopting this new policy, Japan is putting itself on a more offensive footing, and deviating from its commitment to China-Japan relations and the common understanding between the two countries. Hyping up the so-called "China threat" to find an excuse for its military build-up and alignment with the West is doomed to fail.

Nerd narrative

There is a 70% chance that Japan Self-Defense Forces will have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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