Delinquency rate now at its lowest since 1979
National Mortgage NewsAug 11, 2023
The Facts
According to the US Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey, delinquency rates fell to 3.37% at the end of Q2, down 3.64% year-over-year and the lowest since the MBA began collecting data in 1979.
While 30-, 60-, and 90-day delinquency rates fell to 1.75%, 0.55%, and 1.07%, respectively, rates for conventional loans fell 15 basis points to 2.29%, FHA rates fell 32 basis points to 8.95%, and VA rates fell 28 basis points to 3.70%, the lowest since Q4 of 2019.
The Spin
Narrative B
The delinquency rate is low because homeowners are terrified to sign up for record-high interest-rate mortgages, not because of a robust job market or other outside forces. The Fed’s interest rate hikes are scaring people from biting off more than they can chew and are also killing the housing market.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by Aug. 14, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.