A recession in 2023 is now inevitable. Layoffs in tech and finance will spread to other sectors
FortuneMar 27, 2023
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level in more than a year-and-a-half last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Driven by large increases in Ohio and California, initial jobless claims reportedly jumped 28K to 261K for the week ending June 3 — the highest level since October 2021.
The jump in jobless claims could be a sign layoffs are accelerating. It’s another sign of cracks forming in the labor market as the economy feels the full impact of the Fed’s most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades. While the labor market is keeping a much-feared recession at bay for now, increasing unemployment rates in the technology sector and interest rate-sensitive industries shows it can no longer be the case in the coming months.
We must exercise caution and wait for additional confirmation before reading too much into the latest rise in jobless claims and reports of layoffs picking up. The steady job growth of the past several months shows that the labor market remains one of the healthiest parts of the weakening US economy, despite the Fed’s interest rate hikes, which have made borrowing much costlier for businesses and consumers.
There's a 50% chance that the average American employee will work at least 31 hours per week in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.