US Weekly Jobless Claims Highest Since Oct 2021

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The Spin

Narrative A

The jump in jobless claims could be a sign layoffs are accelerating. It’s another sign of cracks forming in the labor market as the economy feels the full impact of the Fed’s most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades. While the labor market is keeping a much-feared recession at bay for now, increasing unemployment rates in the technology sector and interest rate-sensitive industries shows it can no longer be the case in the coming months.

Narrative B

We must exercise caution and wait for additional confirmation before reading too much into the latest rise in jobless claims and reports of layoffs picking up. The steady job growth of the past several months shows that the labor market remains one of the healthiest parts of the weakening US economy, despite the Fed’s interest rate hikes, which have made borrowing much costlier for businesses and consumers.

Metaculus Prediction


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