Maduro orders defensive military exercises before the arrival of a British ship to the coast of Guyana
EL PAÍS EnglishDec 29, 2023
Venezuela to Hold Military Drills After UK Sends Warship to Guyana
The Facts
Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro on Thursday ordered the country's armed forces to hold military drills involving 5.6K soldiers off the coast of Essequibo in response to the UK's decision to send a warship to neighboring Guyana.
Maduro argued that the "defensive" exercises are being launched as the vessel's deployment was "practically a military threat from London" and violated the "spirit" of a recent agreement between Venezuela and Guyana to peacefully settle their territorial dispute over the oil-rich Essequibo region.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The Maduro regime knows very well that the deployment of the British warship is a routine measure and poses absolutely no military threat to Venezuela. Instead, Caracas is stoking tensions by blatantly seeking to annex Guyana's oil-rich Essequibo region illegally. Maduro is prepared to politically instrumentalize the dispute with his South American neighbor to suspend the 2024 presidential elections if necessary. The US eased sanctions against Venezuela in return for Maduro holding free and competitive elections in 2024, which the Venezuelan strongman could very well lose unless he declares a state of emergency beforehand.
Establishment-critical narrative
The British warship's deployment is a blatant military provocation coordinated with the US and a shameless interference attempt to secure access to Essequibo's enormous oil and gas resources. It's also well known that Washington seeks to establish a military base in Essequibo as a bridgehead for its aggression against resource-rich Venezuela after failing to overthrow Maduro. By allowing the militarization of the situation, Guyana is jeopardizing the recent bilateral agreement to refrain from steps that could lead to new tensions. However, Venezuela is prepared to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity by military means if necessary.
Nerd narrative
There's a 60% chance that the US will respond with military forces if Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.