Wagner Chief Exile Is Anything But As He Schmoozes And Lauds Niger Cou
BloombergJul 28, 2023
The Facts
In his first video address since leading an aborted mutiny in Russia in June, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has claimed he is working hard "to make Russia even greater" and to help Africa become "even more free."
In the video, shared by a Telegram channel linked to the Russian mercenary group, Prigozhin claimed his troops are exploring for minerals and "making life a nightmare for Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, and other bandits."
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
Branding Prigozhin a traitor and sending him into exile in neighboring Belarus were plainly false flags intended to deceive the West, expand Wagner's and Putin's influence in Africa, spark a major regional crisis, and enrich the backyards of the Russians with illicit business deals.
Pro-Russia narrative
There's no evidence that Prigozhin is continuing to move in and out of Russia, or that this latest video was filmed in Africa. After all criminal charges against him and the Wagner fighters who participated in the mutiny were dropped, Moscow considers the Prigozhin-era over.
Nerd narrative
There's a 13% chance that Vladimir Putin will declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.