Warren Buffett's $4.1 billion bet on TSMC lasted less than six months
QuartzMay 16, 2023
According to a Monday filing, American business magnate Warren Buffett’s conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, has sold all its shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) over worries about Taiwan's "uncertain" future.
Buffett made his decision after reassessing the risks involved in Taiwanese production. While the company produces some of its chips in other countries, the majority of its production of competitive products happens domestically.
Based on the geopolitical conditions between China and Taiwan, this is the right move by Buffett. A survey showed that half of US firms in Taiwan expect their business to be disrupted by Chinese military operations, and many companies are adding “risk clauses” to their contracts in Taiwan to protect against a flare-up between the island and the mainland.
Buffett is best known for his success in investing, but his decision to pull out is premature. TSMC continues to have a stranglehold on the semiconductor industry, with many companies depending on its technology, despite the current geopolitical tensions. While he's right to be concerned, this is one decision he may come to regret. Other investors would be wise to take advantage of TSMC’s projected success.
There’s a 15% chance that Taiwan will declare independence by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.