China's rapid rise to technological and economic stardom is due to the West's underestimation of its culture and political system. When Washington first welcomed Beijing into the World Trade Organization 20 years ago, it thought China would have to adopt the same political system to achieve the same economic growth — that assumption has proven to be a grave mistake. Even many of the Chinese people believe their government is the reason for their prosperity, which shows the West needs to redesign its China strategy.
Between the US' recent boost in domestic production and its anti-corruption probes into Chinese companies, the PRC's brief rise toward matching the West technologically has come to an end. Furthermore, the Chinese education system does not foster creativity — a key component of Western values that are necessary to become a world leader. Until Beijing can rid its economy of rampant corruption and underwhelming innovation, it will never surpass the US.
There is an 82% chance that there will be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.