Analysis: Why Ukraine's plea for NATO membership is such a profound dilemma for the West
CNNJul 05, 2022
The Facts
At NATO's annual summit in Lithuania on Tuesday, despite last-minute attempts from Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the alliance's 31 members released a final communique that neither secured Ukraine's invitation to NATO nor established a firm timetable or clear conditions for its eventual membership.
The summit communique said that while "Ukraine's future is in NATO," the alliance would only "extend an invitation to Ukraine" when Kyiv had completed certain "democratic and security sector reforms." According to reports, the language reflected concerns from the US and Germany that if Ukraine was permitted to join NATO while the war with Russia was ongoing, NATO — by definition — would be at war with the Russian Federation.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
While NATO will do everything in its power to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian aggression, the alliance simply cannot invite Ukraine to be a member at this stage. Doing so would bring the United States and NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Ukraine needs to have a successful counteroffensive, secure a ceasefire, and then its entry into NATO can proceed.
Pro-Russia narrative
This latest NATO summit in Lithuania continued to demonstrate the anti-Russian attitude of the US-led Atlantic Alliance. Not only does NATO openly describe Russia as its primary threat, but continues to pile further military resources on Russia's borders. Then, NATO has the gall to continue blaming Russia for the outbreak of this conflict — a historical inaccuracy to say the least.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that US or NATO forces will conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions by January 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
