Ukraine has choice of targets as it plots counteroffensive
GuardianMay 12, 2023
Ukraine is ready to launch its long-awaited counteroffensive to recapture territory taken by Russia, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published Saturday, saying, "We strongly believe that we will succeed."
The comments echo those of other senior Ukrainian officials — including Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, and Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian intelligence — who last week also said Ukraine's counteroffensive was ready to start, though little in the way of battlefield pushes have yet to be seen.
After months of planning and preparation — with Kyiv reportedly building up 60K forces for this counteroffensive — the 15-month war is now poised to enter one of its most critical phases. However, exactly where Ukraine will launch this counteroffensive remains to be seen.
Talk of Ukraine's counteroffensive has been hyped up for months. The problem is that Ukraine could end up paying the price for such a successful PR campaign: If the counteroffensive doesn't live up to expectations, Western support could dry up, and Kyiv could be forced to the negotiating table.
The West's pushing of Ukraine to launch this counteroffensive despite the likely catastrophic consequences for its country is yet another indication of how the West wants to inflict damage on Russia without consideration for the damage it will do to Ukraine.
There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.