A wider war doesn’t suit Iran, even as it benefits from rising tensions
CNNJan 13
2 Navy SEALs Missing During Iranian Weapons Mission
The Facts
As of Tuesday, two US Navy SEALs who went overboard off the coast of Somalia on Thursday while conducting a mission to intercept an Iranian vessel suspected of carrying weapons to Yemen-based Houthis are still missing. Other members of the team reportedly went on to find "Iranian-made" missile parts on the vessel.
The SEALs were conducting the mission at night, during which one of them fell into the waters of the Arabian Sea while trying to climb aboard the small Iranian boat, called a dhow. Another SEAL then jumped into the water to rescue him, as is protocol, with the rest completing the mission by detaining the 14-member crew of the dhow and then sinking it after it was deemed unsafe.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is straddling a thin line between protecting its economic interests and Israel on one side and not provoking a regional war with Iran on the other. While Iran likely doesn't want to go to war with the West, it is certainly benefiting from the recent galvanization of its proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis. If Iran allows them to push too far, however, it will lead to the US completely annihilating both groups in a wider conflict. The US must stick to protecting assets at sea while being prepared to ramp up its tactics if need be.
Establishment-critical narrative
All of this is a result of Israel's war on Gaza since Oct. 7. The Houthis and other Iran-allied groups have taken up arms in defense of the Palestinians, and their targets include anyone currently aiding Israel's bombardment, namely the US and UK. No country, including those in the Middle East, wants to see the Red Sea trading route jeopardized — so if the West wants to free up what accounts for 12% of global shipping, it's the West that needs to call an end to Israel's attacks on Gaza.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.