Alexander Stubb Wins Finland's Presidential Election

    Alexander Stubb Wins Finland's Presidential Election
    Image copyright: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Former Prime Minister and National Coalition Party leader Alexander Stubb won the Finnish presidential election runoff on Sunday, securing 51.6% of the votes against Green Party rival Pekka Haavisto's 48.4%.

    • Stubb had won the first round of the presidential election on Jan. 28, receiving 27.2% of the popular vote, while independent candidate Haavisto came in a close second with 25.8% of the ballot.

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    With a pro-European Stubb at the helm, Finland can safely take a hard line on Russia as well as play a robust military role within NATO. Since he seeks to be a unifying factor for the country and assumes the roles of prime minister, foreign minister, and defense minister in the government, his victory marks a new era in Finland, which has so far elected presidents to foster diplomacy and avoid tensions within and outside its boundaries.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Stubb wants to allow the transport of nuclear weapons across Finland and station NATO troops permanently in the country. For him, the line between war and peace has been blurred, and nuclear weapons guarantee stability. Amid Europe's current security environment, unless Stubb takes a non-confrontational and more cautious approach with the Kremlin, maintains Finland's nuclear weapons ban, and remains as calm and contemplative as his predecessor, Helsinki is in geostrategic trouble.

    Metaculus Prediction

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