Al-Shabab Claims Deadly Attack on Military Base in Somalia

    Al-Shabab Claims Deadly Attack on Military Base in Somalia
    Photo: Scott Peterson/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Somali-based, al-Qaeda affiliate group al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for an attack at the General Gordon Military Base in Somali capital Mogadishu on Saturday, which killed at least five people.

    • The deceased were identified as four members of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Armed Forces — two staff warrant officers, a corporal, and a brigadier — as well as an officer from the Bahrain Defense Force.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    This latest incident — a desperate and cowardly attack on UAE forces — shines a light on how important the UAE is in conflict against jihadist terrorism. It is important that such incidents do not deter Abu Dhabi from joining other actors, notably the US, to coordinate operations to tackle the threat of al-Shabab once and for all.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, and all of the Somali security partners in the so-called Quintet have failed to understand that counterterrorism measures alone won't help defeat al-Shabab. This attack should serve as a warning that merely containing the group is a strategy doomed to fail. Rather than deepening conflict, Somalia needs financial and moral support for stabilization and peacebuilding.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that at least 24K deaths will be caused globally by terrorism in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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