Archegos Founder Bill Hwang Found Guilty of Fraud

Archegos Founder Bill Hwang Found Guilty of Fraud
Above: Bill Hwang, founder of Archegos Capital Management, arrives at Manhattan Federal Court on July 10, 2024 in New York City. Image copyright: Michael M. Santiago/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The saga of Archegos epitomizes everything wrong with Wall Street. Hwang was a known fraudster before Archegos, but the promises of big cash and his experience in the finance world lured in big players that would underwrite his schemes. This scandal was business as usual on Wall Street, as the systemic issues they have are yet to be rectified.

Narrative B

The American financial system remains sound, and the basis for this conviction is less sound than it might seem at first glance. None of the trades made by Hwang constituted manipulation on their own, and prosecutors relied on flimsy accusations that his intent was criminal. All traders are trying to "manipulate" the market to get an advantage, and Hwang was made a scapegoat by banks that bet big and lost.

Metaculus Prediction


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