The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
Blinken Meets With Middle East Leaders Amid Regional Tension
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The Facts
On Monday, US Sec. of State Antony Blinken visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia to discuss the humanitarian situation in Gaza, the need to prevent the war from escalating into a full-scale regional conflict, and the US "commitment to securing lasting regional peace that ensures Israel’s security and advances the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.” After meeting with the UAE's leader, Blinken met the Saudi Crown Prince, hoping to revive discussions over normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel; Blinken is expected to visit Israel soon.
This visit is the fourth to the region to be made by Blinken in three months. It comes as Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis attack Red Sea commercial ships, and Tehran-backed militant groups target the US's Iraqi bases.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security. Blinken is working hard to advance this strategy.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Narrative D
Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive conflict. Israel's leadership should keep in mind that Hezbollah is more than ready for an all-out war and can inflict serious losses. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.
Nerd narrative
There is a 6% chance that at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon will be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.