The war in Gaza may widen. The Biden admin is getting ready for it.
POLITICOJan 04
Blinken Visits Egypt Amid Hague Genocide Hearing
The Facts
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Egypt on Thursday to meet with Egyptian Pres. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to discuss the humanitarian situation in Gaza, post-war plans, and avoiding regional escalation. El-Sisi, only the day before, met with Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas and King Abdullah II of Jordan, with the three releasing a statement rejecting "any attempts to reoccupy parts of Gaza" by Israel. Egypt repeatedly insisted since the war began that Palestinians must not be permanently displaced from the Gaza Strip.
Amid Blinken's diplomatic tour of the region, South Africa presented its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague, Netherlands, arguing that "Israel has a genocidal intent against the Palestinians in Gaza." Israel has claimed that the war is a response to Hamas's Oct. 7 attack and Israel is only interested in removing the group from power. The US, alongside some other Western states, stated that the allegations against Israel were not justified.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it's not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Narrative D
Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive conflict. Israel's leadership should keep in mind that Hezbollah is more than ready for an all-out war and can inflict serious losses. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.
Nerd narrative
There's a 64% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.