Three reasons Mike Johnson’s spending agreement with Democrats is on the rocks
Washington ExaminerJan 08
Congressional Negotiators Reach Agreement on 2024 Govt. Spending
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The Facts
Leaders of both the Republican-majority US House of Representatives and the Democrat-held Senate announced on Sunday that they had reached an agreement on federal spending in the 2024 fiscal year.
Within an internal letter, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has described the topline agreement as a "good deal for conservatives," claiming "real spending cuts" for FY2024 as well as the potential to "save taxpayers more than $200 billion" over the next 10 years.
The Spin
Republican narrative
Mike Johnson still has a bit to go if he is to pass his bipartisan spending bill through the House. While hardline conservatives in the party will likely seek concessions on border security in turn for an unsatisfactory spending cap, compromise will have to remain the central theme of negotiations if the federal government is to avoid a shutdown. Funding deadlines are fast approaching — the recently elected speaker now must prove why he has the skills to thread the needle for the GOP.
Democratic narrative
The deal is a win for Democrats, avoiding the original drastic cuts that Johnson and the far-right of the Republican Party have long sought after. Spending will consequently be kept at a steady rate if the agreement can make its way through Congress in the shape of 12 appropriation bills — a task easier said than done in the face of the House Freedom Caucus' inevitable protests. Attention must now hastily turn towards making the America-friendly deal a reality for the benefit of everyone.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that US government spending-to-GDP will be at least 40.2% for 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.