ISS: Russian special services behind attack on Estonian minister's car
ERRFeb 20
Estonia: 10 Russians Held in Alleged 'Sabotage' Plot
The Facts
On Tuesday, the Estonian Internal Security Service announced the arrest of ten individuals for allegedly coordinating a "hybrid operation" in the country on behalf of Russia's special services.
Estonian officials allege that "its aim was to create tension and spread fear in Estonian society." The suspects, who were detained between December and February, include those previously accused of breaking the car windows of the interior minister and a journalist in December.
The Spin
Anti-Russia narrative
The Kremlin is employing its entire arsenal of subversive activities against the Baltic countries. This follows the intimidation of Prime Minister Kallas, and several other politicians, who were added to Russia's wanted list last week. It is a tried-and-true strategy of instilling fear, as anyone who has ever lived under Russian rule can attest. This has just demonstrated that Estonia is correctly supporting Ukraine and strengthening European defenses, despite Moscow's intention to silence critics.
Pro-Russia narrative
The security services of Estonia are working around the clock to try to find a Russian connection to any crime there — even when there is no crime to be found. Russian President Vladimir Putin has often stated that Moscow has no geopolitical interest in attacking a NATO member. This, of course, includes Estonia and the other two Baltic nations. It's completely untrue to say that the Kremlin has any territorial interests in the Baltics — there's simply no rationale or desire for that from the Kremlin's perspective.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance Russia will annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.