EU, Mercosur Reach Free Trade Deal

EU, Mercosur Reach Free Trade Deal
Above: Uruguay's Luis Lacalle Pou and EU's Ursula von der Leyen during the Mercosur Leaders Summit in Montevideo, Uruguay, on Dec. 6, 2024.  Image copyright: Mauricio Zina/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The EU-Mercosur trade deal is an economic opportunity for Europe, providing access to South America’s critical raw materials essential for the green transition and reducing dependence on China. It lowers tariffs, opens investment opportunities, and supports European industries like chemicals and machinery. While farmers are concerned about competition from South American imports, the deal’s economic and strategic benefits, including strengthened supply chains and geopolitical influence, outweigh these challenges and offer a path to balance their needs through targeted support.

Establishment-critical narrative

The EU-Mercosur trade deal prioritizes corporate profits over people, democracy, and the environment. Negotiated by bureaucrats for over two decades, it lacks transparency and excludes public input. The deal threatens to worsen deforestation, promote harmful agricultural practices, and undermine European farmers through cheap imports of beef, chicken, and sugar. Furthermore, it exacerbates social inequalities and weakens vital environmental and human rights protections. By pushing this deal in secrecy, the EU has ignored critical concerns in favor of corporate gains, representing both an economic and moral failure.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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