European Commission Explores Transition to 'War Economy Mode'

European Commission Explores Transition to 'War Economy Mode'
Image copyright: Omar Havana/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The Russian invasion of Ukraine uncovered numerous vulnerabilities within the EU's defense sector and the huge extent to which the bloc is reliant on the US. It's high time that the EU increases its self-reliance and rises to meet the threats it faces. For years the EU has underspent on defense, instead counting on the US to provide protection. The EU needs to better meet its NATO commitments and bolster its position within the rules-based order.

Narrative B

This proposal is nowhere near to being approved. First, it would need the approval of 27 different nations as well as the European Parliament, but also, it will likely come after the election of the new European Parliament in June, for which politicians have differing views on whether a defense commissioner post should be created. While the language of the proposal suggests urgency, this plan will likely take some time. It's unlikely that a militaristic force posture will be a near-term reality for Europe.

Metaculus Prediction


Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!