EU proposes major defence boost as it eyes Russia and Trump
Al JazeeraMar 05
The Facts
The European Commission met on Tuesday to propose plans for the EU's transition to "war economy mode" and ways to boost the bloc's arms industry in response to the Russian war in Ukraine.
The €1.5B ($1.6B) EU defense industry proposal will call on the member states to acquire at least 40% of their collective defense equipment by 2030 with the goal of making intra-state trade of defense equipment worth at least 35% of the EU's total defense market.
The Spin
Narrative A
The Russian invasion of Ukraine uncovered numerous vulnerabilities within the EU's defense sector and the huge extent to which the bloc is reliant on the US. It's high time that the EU increases its self-reliance and rises to meet the threats it faces. For years the EU has underspent on defense, instead counting on the US to provide protection. The EU needs to better meet its NATO commitments and bolster its position within the rules-based order.
Narrative B
This proposal is nowhere near to being approved. First, it would need the approval of 27 different nations as well as the European Parliament, but also, it will likely come after the election of the new European Parliament in June, for which politicians have differing views on whether a defense commissioner post should be created. While the language of the proposal suggests urgency, this plan will likely take some time. It's unlikely that a militaristic force posture will be a near-term reality for Europe.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that NATO will have at least 32 member countries by December 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.